Here is a complete breakdown of the match-ups for the upcoming playoff series against Atlanta.

Rondo vs. Bibby

Rondo has the physical advantage over Bibby and will be able to get past him on dribble penetration. Bibby at this point of his career cannot stay in front of him defensively. Rondo will have a lot of open looks from 15 feet out and beyond, Rondo has really improved his shot, but it is still not a weapon, so despite the opportunities don’t expect to see Rondo to become a volume shooter. Bibby is a better shooter, but Rondo runs his offense better than Bibby does his. Bibby may bring the ball up but he plays more like a SG guard than a true PG. Bibby will rarely get past his defender, and most of his passes are kick outs to teammates behind him instead of a traditional drive and dish attack. Rondo will have to be disciplined to stay with Bibby and not chase other players in help defense because Bibby will set up outside the three point line and use his quick release on a shot before a defender can recover. Expect to see some isolations run for Rondo to attack Bibby.

Advantage - Push

Interesting stat:

Baron Davis attempted 525 three pointers in 07/08′
Rajon Rondo attempted 19 three pointers in 07/08′

Ray Allen vs. Joe Johnson

This match up looks to favor the Atlanta Hawks on paper, until you look at the paper. Johnson is shooting 31%/18% FG/3PFG versus the Celtics this season in three games. Johnson is still the most difficult guard for any of the Celtics to handle, he can drive, pull up from mid range off the dribble and shoot threes, he is one of the most complete players in the NBA. When the Atlanta offense breaks down (which happens a lot) they will run isolation for Johnson against Allen hoping to exploit the physical advantage. Allen has never been known for his defense but he has done a good job sending Johnson into defensive help and frustrating him. Johnson ends up settling for threes far too often against Boston. Allen has only put up 10 shots a game against the Hawks this season, but he has made the most of them. The most surprising aspect of Allen’s game is that he is a better shooter when under duress, instead of spotting up and waiting for a kick out pass.

Advantage - Johnson

Interesting stat:

Johnson and Bibby combined have taken 15 3PA per game vs. the Celtics.

Paul Pierce vs. Marvin Williams

Williams has no chance against Pierce, when watching video it is remarkable how bad Williams is at setting up defensively against Pierce. Williams takes bad angles on close outs and is terrible working around picks. Pierce is in complete control at this stage of his career and never rushes anything offensively. On defense Pierce will only have to worry about challenging baseline jumpers from Williams. Williams is a talented player but he really is only dangerous as a jump shooter which is disappointing considering he is only 21 years old. Expect to see Atlanta 6th man Josh Childress get more of the minutes in the series.

Advantage - Pierce

Interesting stat:

Pierce hits of 79% 3PA from the left side to the baseline, 29% from the right side.

Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith

During the season this match up shows you how much of an impact Garnett makes defensively. Smith is an elite athlete that can finish at the rim above everyone else, but against Garnett he is reluctant to drive to the hoop. Smith has a quick first step but he starts his move so far away that Garnett has plenty of time to cut him off. Smith eventually starts to settle for jumpers and 3PA which is great for Boston considering Smith hits only 29% of his mid range 2PA ranking 241 out of 248 players that qualify in the NBA. If Smith is going to set picks for anyone it doesn’t set up a mismatch because Garnett is great against smaller players. Offensively Garnett doesn’t attack Smith as much as he does Al Horford when Smith is out of the game. Garnett plays like a small forward on offense and a center on defense. You have to be aware of both players when trying to finish around the rim, especially Smith, who sells out to try and block every shot. Garnett and Smith are both terrific interior passers, but Garnett sets up his teams offense where as the Atlanta possession usually ends with Smith.

Advantage - Garnett

Interesting stat:

Garnett hits 48% of his mid range 2PA, 9th out 248 qualifying NBA players.

Kendrick Perkins vs. Al Horford

Horford has solid numbers against the Celtics, leading the Hawks in scoring with 15.7ppg in their three contests this season. Horford will have a lot of open looks when Perkins sags off of him defensively. Horford hit 5/7 outside shots in the last of three games against the Celtics, and was 0/3 in the second game this year. Look for Horford to have the green light. When Atlanta runs a scripted play they will go through Horford in the high post, they trust him to make good decisions. Perkins is stronger than Horford and can push him around more than you would expect. Perkins offensively is still limited to handoffs from other teammates taking advantage of defenses that leave Perkins open to help, but he has become a little less predictable with his post moves and has improved his passing out of the double team. Atlanta has sent double teams at Perkins, which really doesn’t make a lot of sense, if this happens Perkins will do a good job of finding the open man. Perkins will have to be aware when trying to finish around the rim, because Josh Smith will be there to challenge shots. Pay attention during this series because Perkins likes to rough up Horford.

Advantage - Horford

Interesting stat:

Perkins ranks 56 out of 60 NBA centers in percentage (19.6%) of possessions that end in a turnover.

Bench

Advantage - Boston

It is not even close; the Celtics just can’t be lulled to sleep when the subs are in.

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